Starmer's Backers Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry
Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a coordinated initiative to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a return to parliament. This move comes after the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an upcoming by-election.
Serious Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Process
Multiple members on the party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection process. This is largely due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are keen to head off any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The party apparatus is said to have mobilised following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he prompted anger in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to run for the party leadership.
It has long been believed that he is seeking a return to parliament to potentially stand for the party leadership if a contest to Sir Keir arise. However, allies of the Mayor have warned against overstating the level of any scheming, stating he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Political Landscape and Public Approval
Amid polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole prominent Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.
Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then win the byelection against competition from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any potential leadership challenge.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself said that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
NEC members have allegedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
A number of insiders also expressed concerns about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.
Union Influence and Procedural Fears
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the committee could enforce an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.
Yet, one Burnham ally warned against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.
The unions hold a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The constituency in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to launch a strong campaign, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.
If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a requirement that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the parliamentary party.
The resigning MP stated he was resigning due to deteriorating health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his involvement in an offensive online group.
