‘An Alarming State of Affairs’: Conflict on Iran Constricts India's LPG Stock.

The repercussions of a conflict being fought nearly 3,000km away are now reaching India's households.

As aerial attacks on Iran impede energy deliveries through the key maritime chokepoint, stocks of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are shrinking across India, compelling restaurants to cut menus, shorten hours and in some cases shut down altogether.

Social media is filled with video clips showing queues outside LPG distributors across Indian metros and localities as concerns over fuel supplies spread. Commercial LPG users appear the most affected: the biggest crunch is in restaurant kitchens.

"The situation is dire. Kitchen fuel simply isn't available," says a representative of the an industry group.

Most restaurants run either on commercial LPG cylinders or direct gas lines, and the shortages are now being felt across the country. "A lot of restaurants have ceased operations - some in northern India, many in the south. People are switching to solid fuels and induction stoves to keep their operations going."

Regional Impact

In Mumbai, local news say up to a fifth of hotels and restaurants are already fully or partly shut as commercial LPG supplies dwindle. In the southern cities of Bengaluru and Chennai, some restaurants say their fuel reserves have shrunk with little backup. "Coffee is the sole item we can prepare and nothing else - it is nothing less than pathetic. Operations will be impacted," says a chain proprietor in Bengaluru.

Restaurant owners are seeking alternatives. "Offering lists are shrinking, some are opening only for dinner and operating solely in the evening," an industry representative says, adding that shutdowns are changing as supplies come and go. "A number of eateries in Delhi were shut yesterday - some have resumed operations. It's a changing landscape."

Retailers note a increase in sales of electronic cooking appliances, with some saying they are running out of them.

Government Stance

Yet, the officials insists there is no shortage.

India has more than 300 million home fuel subscribers and officials say cylinders are being prioritized to households as geopolitical strain from the Middle East conflict impact energy markets.

About six out of ten of India's LPG is brought in from overseas, and about nine out of ten of those imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the vital passage now significantly disrupted by the hostilities.

The oil ministry says that it directed refineries to maximise LPG output for household consumption, enhancing domestic production by about 25%. Commercial stock is being allocated for vital industries such as healthcare and education, while distribution will be "fair and transparent".

"Some panic booking and stockpiling has been caused by misinformation. The regular refill period for household cylinders remains about under three days," says a government spokesperson.

Widening Concern

Now the concern is spreading beyond kitchens. On online networks, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a long, snaking queue of scooters outside a fuel station. "The panic is real," the caption reads.

According to analysis from industry analysts, concerns about India's broader fuel supplies may be overstated.

India imports the overwhelming majority of its crude oil. Around 50% of its petroleum shipments - about 2.5 to 2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the strait, largely from Gulf countries.

Even if oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, the deficit could be partly made up by higher imports of discounted Russian crude, according to a sector expert.

Based on shipping data and industry information, additional Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, lessening India's effective gap from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about a substantial volume of barrels a day.

"Around 25-30 million Russian oil barrels are currently on the water in the Indian Ocean and, with only key buyers as major buyers, those barrels remain a viable alternative," an analyst noted.

Cooking Gas: The Critical Weakness

The primary concern is kitchen fuel, experts note.

India consumes roughly a million barrels a day, but produces only less than half domestically, importing the rest - 80–90% through the chokepoint.

Refineries can modify output to extract a bit more LPG, but even a moderate increase would only increase domestic supply to about 47-50% of demand, leaving the country significantly leaning on imports.

In short: "Crude supply risk can be somewhat alleviated through varied suppliers. Refined product supply remains largely sufficient. Cooking gas supply is the critical issue to track in the coming weeks."

What may be intensifying the concern on the ground is not just limited availability but uneven distribution - and the familiar spectre of panic buying.

An industry representative claims price gouging.

"Distributors are misusing the situation - black-marketing cylinders and selling them at a inflated price. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being stockpiled and sold to the highest bidder."

For now, India's oil supplies may be protected by worldwide shipping. But in restaurants across the country, the more pressing concern is simple: how to get the next cylinder.